2007 Prediction Blowout

...ah, another one of these dual (or maybe "duel?") columns where Pierre and I compare our takes on the upcoming season.

This time, it's a full-on prediction blowout...


...first, a recap of the "Prediction Dart Boards" from the Intriguing Questions (including the few that have yet to be posted):

IQ #10
Alicia Molik will reach the QF of a slam, win two titles and return to the Top 15... Nadia Petrova will reach her first slam singles final... Tatiana Golovin will win her first career singles title... a Romanian will win a Jr. slam singles crown, and Raluca Olaru will reach a tour singles SF... Agnieszka Radwanska will win her first WTA singles title, while sister Urszula will claim a Jr. slam crown... Dinara Safina will win a Tier I... Sania Mirza will win a tour singles title in India, and her season-ending ranking will tick up at least 20 spots
IQ #9
Sania Mirza won't advance to a slam Round of 16... Maria Sharapova & Justine Henin-Hardenne will divvy up the four slam singles titles (2/2 or 3/1)... Kim Clijsters will win at least one Tier I title... Martina Hingis will reach the SF of either the Australian or Roland Garros, and maybe both... Nicole Vaidisova will still be in search of her first slam final when '07 ends... Daniela Hantuchova won't win her second career title, and Francesca Schiavone won't claim her first... Jelena Jankovic will win two titles, but none bigger than a Tier III... Shahar Peer will win multiple singles titles, and pull off one huge slam upset... Maria Kirilenko's results will prove to be more Anna-like than Sharapova-esque
IQ #8
Jelena Dokic's year-ending rank will be between #300-400, and her stretch of time without a slam match win will reach four years
IQ #7
Vania King will win two titles, while Jamea Jackson and Aleksandra Wozniak will win their first... Sharon Fichman and Madison Brengle will claim their first career ITF titles
IQ #6-5
Both Martina Hingis and Anna Chakvetadze will reach slam SF, while one of the Williams sisters will reach a slam final... Hingis & Chakvetadze will record more slam QF than the Venus & Serena combo... Chakvetadze will win three titles, but not another Tier I... but Hingis WILL win a Tier I... Venus & Serena won't be shut out of titles again, but neither will win one until the U.S. Open Series
IQ #4-3
Maria Sharapova and Nicole Vaidisova will play at least two meaningful matches, and Sharapova will win them all... Vaidisova will win two titles, one a Tier II... Vaidisova won't match her slam SF of '06... Sharapova will add to her career slam title tally (winning at least two), and will be named Female Athlete of the Year
IQ #2
Amelie Mauresmo will reach two slam SF, but no slam final... Justine Henin-Hardenne will win at least one slam title... Mauresmo will reach the YEC final
=Volley=
...Jankovic and Ivanovic will spend time in the Top 10, but won't finish there... Hingis will reach the second week of all four slams

And now a few more (some a bit more wild stab-in-the-dark than others):

10 First-time WTA titlists: Tatiana Golovin, Jamea Jackson, Kaia Kanepi, Jelena Kostanic, Romina Oprandi, Olga Poutchkova, Agnieszka Radwanska, Samantha Stosur, Aleksandra Wozniak, Meng Yuan
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10 First-time WTA finalists: Victoria Azarenka, Sybille Bammer, Vasilisa Bardina, Yung-Jan Chan, Jarmila Gajdosova, Karin Knapp, Victoriya Kutuzova, Tszvetana Pironkova, Aravane Rezai, Shuai Zhang
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10 First-time WTA semifinalists: Angelique Kerber, Mariya Koryttseva, Alla Kudryavtseva, Varvara Lepchenko, Raluca Olaru, Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova, Jing Ren, Magdalena Rybarikova, Anna Tatishvili, Caroline Wozniacki
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Slam singles finalists: Maria Sharapova (3), Justine Henin-Hardenne (2), Nadia Petrova (1), the Williams family (1), Kim Clijsters (1)
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No titles: Daniela Hantuchova, Francesca Schiavone, Marta Domachowska, Shuai Peng
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North Americans aged 21 or under: five WTA tour singles titles
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France will win the Fed Cup
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And as for...

1- Maria Sharapova will win 2 slams, I'll go even further and say they'll be Melbourne and Wimbledon, in both finals she'll defeat Henin-Hardenne but will then lose to her in the US Open final (ok...what are the odds of getting this one)
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2- By year end, one Williams sister will be out of the top 100 while the other one will be near the top 10 making big waves (and a run) at the US Open
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3- American's tennis will continue to be in disaray as only one will feature in the top 50 by year-end.
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4- By year end, Poland will have more top 100 players than Slovakia or Czech Republic, something few would have predicted a few years ago.
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5- Kim Clijsters will only play one tournament prior to the US Open (Rogers Cup in Canada) as she will be preparing for US Open after a perfect wedding.
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6- Aleksandra Wozniak, the #1 ranked Canadian player will enter the top 50, the first to do so in many years.
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7- The WTA will continue its non-sense in joining the ATP to have its first round robbins in 2008, clearly in contrast with its stated goal of making the game simple (see US Open Series, new rankings, etc).
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8- Jelena Jankovic will win a tier 1 title for the first time of her career but will lag fellow Serbian Ana Ivanovic in consistency
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9- Anna Chakvetadze will continue to make serious strides, she will make the semifinals of one slam and the quarterfinals in two others
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10- Not one American will win a main draw match in the French Open
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...a Week 1 special, as the '07 Royale gets a little head start.




GOLD COAST, AUSTRALIA (III-Hard)
06 FINAL: Safarova def. Pennetta
07 TOP: Hingis/Safina
=============================
SF: Hingis d. King(Q); Peer d. Stosur
FINAL: Hingis d. Peer

...I so want to pick Peer here. She's 3-0 in career WTA finals.


AUCKLAND, NEW ZEALAND (IV-Hard)
06 FINAL: Bartoli d. Zvonareva
07 TOP: Jankovic/Myskina
=============================
SF: Jankovic d. Bartoli; Zvonareva d. Myskina
FINAL: Jankovic d. Zvonareva

...ugh, I picked two #1 seeds to win in Week 1. Probably a bad move.


HOPMAN CUP XIX; PERTH, AUSTRALIA (Hard)
06 FINAL: USA d. Netherlands
07 TOP GROUP SEEDS: Russia/Spain
=============================
FINAL: Australia d. Spain

...Molik's first step could be a big one (or, as big as it CAN be, considering last year's Hopman champs were Lisa Raymond & Taylor Dent).


HONG KONG, CHINA (exhibition)
06 FINAL: Clijsters d. Daveport
07 TOP: Sharapova/Kuznetsova
=============================
SF: Sharapova d. Vaidisova; Clijsters d. Kuznetsova
FINAL: Sharapova d. Clijsters

...Sharapova could play Vaidisova in the SF, but it still won't count as an "official" meeting.



=HOPMAN CUP=
Czech Republic def France

=HONG KONG=
SF: Sharapova def Vaidisova, Clijsters def Kuznetsova
FINAL: Sharapova def Clijsters

=AUCKLAND=
SF: Bartoli def Jankovic, Myskina def Hantuchova
FINAL: Myskina def Bartoli

=GOLD COAST=
SF: Hingis def Vesnina, Peer def Safina
FINAL: Hingis def Peer


All for now.

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NEXT IQ: Maria vs. Nicole... a battle for the ages, eventually?

And...

Read more...

#5/#6: The Best Laid Plans of Babes, both Big and Little

Twenty-five years ago, many people looked at the force that Martina Navratilova had become and saw the future of women's tennis... and they didn't like it. They acknowledged Navratilova's ability, but they weren't comfortable with the entire notion of her. And it wasn't just because she was gay, born in a Communist country and NOT Chris Evert, either. Her game, for all appearances at the time, was one based on strength. Physical dominance, really. For some, it simply wasn't "feminine enough."

My, how times change.

In retrospect, Navratilova had simply molded herself (with the help of a cadre of experts) into a truth a-t-h-l-e-t-e in every sense of the word. She had the best hands and reflexes at the net in the history of the women's game (and, maybe if not for John McEnroe, in the history of tennis, period). She revolutionized the way female athletes train, and intimidated her opponents sometimes by simply showing up on the other side of the net.

But Martina wasn't a "big babe."

At 5-feet-8, seeing the 40-ish Navratilova stand alongside some of the 6-foot-plus, ball-smashing, serve-ripping players who arrived on the scene in the late 1990's riding the new wave of racket technology and the Bollettieri-styled baseline basher mentality was to sometimes be stunned by the juxtaposition. Often she was physically dwarfed by her fellow competitors.

Considering nature's evolutionary law of survival of the fittest, it's no surprise that "big babe tennis," so dubbed by Billie Jean King way back when, took over the tour in the late 1990's/early 2000's. Lindsay. Venus. Serena. Jennifer. Mary. They arrived like an invading force. After years of slam titles being spread out amongst methodical baseliners (Conchita Martinez), charging volleyers (Jana Novotna), scrappy grinders (Arantxa Sanchez Vicario), clever shotmakers (Martina Hingis) and big hitters (Steffi Graf & Monica Seles), the "big babes" took over.

From 1999-03, unmistakable Big Babes won 16 of 20 slam titles. For a while, women's tennis became an entirely different sport. Throw together the blistering groundstrokes of a Graf with the natural height of the new breed of serve-crushing top women's players, and even the world #1 -- at the time, Hingis -- eventually quaked in her shoes.

The 5-feet-7 Hingis, blessed with an innate craftiness and intelligence on court that far surpassed her rivals, won five slam titles as a teenager in Graf's waning years, just before the arrival of the Big Babes. She was #1 for 209 weeks before the onslaught physically pushed her back against the wall (and, literally, her feet behind the baseline due to the power of the shots coming back at her so quickly)... and, unable to cope, the Swiss Miss fled the game entirely after the 2002 season.

Many bemoaned the new power game. It lacked finesse and gameplanning, they said, as most Big Babes chose to bash from the baseline with little conscious or forethought. They could blast winners from all angles, but their impatience meant that the art of constructing a point was placed on the endangered list. Unlike earlier, people didn't frown because it all was "unfeminine"... but because it was "boring" and "uninteresting."

Fast forward four seasons, and Hingis is back. She ended 2006 ranked #7, while the era (or at least the outright dominance) of the physically menacing Big Babes has largely passed. What happened?

Well, certainly the racket technology that aided the rise of the Big Babes eventually helped the "Little Babes" keep up as much as it had helped the Big Babes exponentially increase their natural advantage over their more "classic" competition. Smaller players still had less power, but they generated enough to no longer be blown off the court by the sheer power of their larger opponents.

Injuries, too, played a large part. While there was more of a Big Babe for a tennis fan to love, there was more of them to get hurt, too. All the BB's have suffered through back, shoulder, wrist and knee maladies (and, in the case of Mary Pierce, pretty much all of the above) that limited their activity, disrupted their timing and gradually wore down those shots that used to paralyze and limit the options of smaller players.

And, not least of all, Justine Henin-Hardenne happened, as well.

Even at 5-feet-5, JHH showed that it WAS possible to chop down the large trees that had encircled the WTA tour. Although, in a sense, JHH was a hybrid -- a Little Babe with a Big Babe's game. She's still managed to scrape out five slam championships in the last four years with a blend of force, aggression and intimidation... all traits of a classic Big Babe co-existing in the form of a player who's almost always the tiniest competitor on the court.

In Hingis' absence, the likes of Anastasia Myskina and Kim Clijsters -- not powderpuffs, especially Clijsters, but hardly physically dominating presences -- won slam crowns, too.

All of it likely played no small role in Hingis' decision to return. The Swiss Miss is a smart cookie, and she could see the worm was turning back in her favor. It was apparent that her game could ultimately outlast those of the faltering Big Babes... and she returned to a sport that closely resembled the one to which she arrived as a 16-year old sprite. For a Little Babe like Hingis, patience was an imperative for success. More architect than battering ram, the thought was that she might be able to use the new technology to compensate for part of the Big-vs-Little imbalance, closing the competitive gap because of the Big Babes' lack of tactics and (sometimes) sound technique.

All in all, the notion was a correct one.

In 2006, Hingis won two titles (including Rome, one of three Tier I finals in which she appeared), reached the QF of the Australian and U.S. Opens, and defeated Maria Sharapova (6-feet-2), Venus and Davenport. Her success proved that JHH's success was no aberration. The WTA tour WAS safe for Little Babes again.

Thus, after this extended preamble, I must finally ask...

IQ #6: Have the Little Babes Inherited the Earth?

Well, let's not get carried away. The original Big Babes might be gone, but the classic Little Babes are still few and far between. 2006's slams were shared by Sharapova (who's a 6-foot-plus power player, but she doesn't physically impose herself in the fashion of an in-form Venus or Serena), JHH (a hyrid player) and Amelie Mauresmo (a big babe -- with a small "b" -- with something of a Little Babe's game of finesse and touch).



The most "conventional" Little Babes ranked in the Top 20 are Hingis and 19-year old Russian Anna Chakvetadze... two players so close in playing style it's as if they were formed from the same mold.

Hingis entered '06 as a welcome returnee emblazoned with a big question mark on her back, but ended it feeling more competitive with the top players who'd chased her from the game three seasons earlier. Her Hingis II wins over Venus and Davenport came after suffering through Hingis I-closing stretches of 2-6 and 3-8, respectively, against them. Her better attitude was apparent, but while she was 48-7 against players ranked outside the Top 10 she was just 5-12 against Top 10ers. Obviously, the pre-eminent Little Babe is still quite a ways from reclaiming a dominant tour position. Obviously, she still needs all her guile to compete with the game's best, Big or not.

Meanwhile, Chakvetadze came into last season as a good young player with promise, but left it as a near Top 10er (#13) with a Tier I title in Moscow who seemed be even be surprising herself after putting on a pretty good impression of being an improved version of Martina... "Hingis, version 2.0," if you will. 6-3 against Top 10ers and surging in the season's final months, the potential she flashed could make her the rising player to watch in '07.

With the playing field leveled a bit, the combination of Big and Little Babe can make for some intriguing tennis matchups (case in point, the two three-set Hingis-Venus matches of last season). The Little Babes might not be ready to inherit the tennis world, but they have proven that they can not only outlast the Big Babes, but coexist with them, as well. That wasn't the case a few years ago.

But...

IQ #5: Can the Big Babes Rise Again?

Ironically, as strong as the Big Babes were, both their games and bodies were fragile. Overpowering opponents with big serves and heavy groundstrokes that could win points from virtually anywhere on the court offered little finesse, and BB's were more prone to seeing their game fly off at a moment's notice due to problems in technique. Opting for brute force, they were often exciting, but also frustrating.

Part of the reason the Big Babes' hold on the sport has waned is because so many are either gone, going or trapped in career limbo. But even with the future of an injured Capriati and Pierce in doubt (at best), and Davenport pregnant, there IS still hope in the form of the Williams sisters... two of the last remaining practitioners of Big Babe tennis.



Venus and Serena could still do major damage on tour, but thanks to continuing injury problems they barely even had cameos in their own careers last season. Venus was 13-6. Serena 12-4. Venus finished ranked #48. Serena #95. Neither won a singles title for the first time since 1998, nor even reached a final. In Melbourne, Venus lost in the 1st Round while Serena was dumped out in the 3rd... the earliest ever dual exit for the sisters in a slam. This year's Wimbledon final didn't include a Williams for the first time since 1999.

Still, when they were healthy and focused, they caused ripples in the WTA waters. Venus reached the Roland Garros QF on her least hospitable surface just weeks after notching a SF in Rome. Serena, after an extended break, returned to action during the U.S. Open Series and notched SF results in Cincinnati and Los Angeles.

But, of course, Venus played just two matches after Wimbledon. Serena never played again after the U.S. Open. As great as the sisters can still be, their's is an unreliable presence. The tour must be thanking the tennis gods for the likes of the marketable (and consistently in form, and in attendence) Sharapova... especially with the crowd-pleasing Clijsters promising to walk away after the '07 season.

This offseason, Venus and Serena have been in the headlines often... butt not because of their tennis. They've been IN court more often than ON court (this week, they were in Miami for "Monday Night Football"), and Venus' injured wrist means she might miss the Australian Open.

The beat goes on.

But they're still relevant because while their games are now hit-and-miss, they're still talented enough to collect themselves at some point and wreak havoc on a draw. They came out of nowhere to combine for two slam titles in '05 (something that had never happened in a single season before then), and Serena in form and determined to prove something is still the most awesome thing to watch in women's tennis (and in TENNIS, period, this side of Roger Federer). We'll probably see evidence of the sisters' past dominance again, in brief doses, but who knows when it'll come (and you have to fight the urge to say IF it will)... unless one or both fashion an Agassi-like late-career renaissance that regenerates their historical significance and makes everyone forget about the previous rough patches.

In the battle of the classic Big Babes vs. the classic Little Babes, the sisters have a better shot a more greatness down the line, but Hingis and Chakvetadze can be counted on to be in the fight on a week in, week out basis throughout this and future seasons.

Size still matters... just not as much as it used to.

PREDICTION DART BOARD: Both Hingis and Chakvetadze will reach slam semifinals in 2007, but one of the Williams sisters will reach a slam Final... the two Little Babes will combine for more slam QF than the two Big Babes... Chakvetadze will win three titles, but not another Tier I... Hingis WILL win a Tier I, though... while Venus and Serena will not be shut out of any tour titles again in '07, neither will win one until the U.S. Open Series.

All for now.

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UP NEXT: 'ova vs. 'ova... the battle for position

AND COMING SOON: More...

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BV: 2007 Top 10, Pt.I

To be (in the Top 10), or not to be (in the Top 10). That is the 2007 question that Pierre Cantin and I are prepared to answer to the best of our abilities. Of course, if past history reigns supreme, that means that our selections will succeed, fail... and paint at least one cursed player into a corner that will require a comeback season in '08 to put it behind her.

Rather than release our predictions in the usual separate columns, our pre-season session with the ol' crystal ball is going to be presented a little differently -- in the premiere edition of "Backspin Volley," where we bat around each other's ideas in a recent web conversation.

In Part I, we cover the future #'s 6 through 10:


TS: Hey, this new Backspin feature even has its own set of logos. "Sleek" and "vibrant," huh? Ha. Unfortunately, our picks probably won't end up looking quite as tidy at the end of the season.

PC: Yeah, very neat idea. Not surprising coming from you but indeed, I think this new column format could be a hit. Oh, maybe I'm just kidding myself, the readers are interested in reading your stuff... but then again, most of your predictions are not compared with anyone else which makes it easy to look good. Of course this top 10 predictions is nothing new and we've proved time and time again how wrong we could be. The now famous "Kuznetsova Curse" is the best example.

TS: Hey, now, I correctly predicted Tiantian Sun to win a title in 2006 and no one can take that away from me... nor would they want to, right? But seriously, Pierre, are you ready to inadvertently put a curse on some unsuspecting young woman or two?

PC: Haha, yeah why not. I'm starting to feel like the "lucky" player might want to have this article deleted.

TS: I guess I'll go first and list my picks for the back end of my Top 10 predictions. And here they are:

9. Nicole Vaidisova
10. Dinara Safina

I'm giving a slight bump up for both Nicole and Dinara after they finished #10 and #11, respectively, last season (Vaidisova edged out Safina by a single ranking point!). I think both would have to have a mega-breakthrough (a final or better) in a slam to climb much higher this coming year since they're both a bit inconsistent over the course of the entire season. After claiming none in '06, I think Safina will win a few titles this time (I actually predicted a Tier I), but if I had to pick one of the two to slip a bit in the rankings it would be her, not Vaidisova. Of the two, Vaidisova is more likely to step up in the latter stages of a slam, but that 1-6 SF record in '06 is whispering in my ear when it comes to predicting that she'll pull it off in '07. I think Vaidisova is still on the way up, but it might take an additional year for her to finally get there.

PC: Really, Todd? You really want to start this whole thing by putting Safina in your top 10? I have been up and down over time about her, but I still think she has yet to evolve as I hoped she would. Some things like her consistency and her movement do not seem to be improving over the years. As well, I'm not sure she has a good slam performance in her. Nicole, Nicole, Nicole. I had her high on my list in 2006, and she disapointed me a few times, but I'm putting myself out there again this year... but she'll do better than #9.

My two picks are:

9. Anastasia Myskina
10. Nadia Petrova

How fitting for me to have 2 Russians to start this off. A return by Anastasia Myskina? Yes I know, she's not the one you all expect to bounce back. But Todd, wouldn't you agree on the fact she is a better player when there are low expectations on her? And she decided to come back because she thought she had not accomplished everything she needed to do, so I think she'll make it back in the top 10 this year. Nadia Petrova is tough to figure out, she has a new coach and is certainly full of motivation, but I'm not sure her game matches that well against a few of the top players.

TS: Well, I figured that since Safina nearly finished in the Top 10 without winning anything, she could probably essentially run in place another year, at least... but, then again, she's Marat's sister, so who knows? Yeah, the Czarina's better when she's able to sneak up on players, but she's like so many of the Russians (except for Sharapova), where the opinions on them can differ wildly from season to season. Obviously, Petrova is included in that list. I know we've always been a bit apart when it comes to her prospects, but that makes things fun... you always give Anastasia the benefit of the doubt, while I always go with Nadia. I felt great about Petrova's '06 season, and since you didn't even predict her in your Top 10 last year I'll look at her 10-spot this time around as a victory on my and Nadia's part, okay? (By the way, I have one of those two significantly higher on my list... hmmm, I wonder which one it is?)

PC: All right Todd, I guess we'll find out who does better, but I would truly like you to explain what you see most in Petrova, what match she's won that has made you a "believer"?

TS: Well, excluding the time when she was recovering from her injury layoff, I think Petrova's full '06 season showed that she's now capable of the consistency that previously eluded her. Since she won her first career title in Linz in October '05, no player has won more titles than Nadia's 6 over that span (and only JHH and Mauresmo have won as many). She doesn't have a slam, of course, but two Tier I's (plus a RU in Moscow) and four Tier II's aren't exactly a case of patrolling under the table for scraps. But if I'm forced to pick out one "signature" match for Petrova... hmmm, how about her Berlin final victory over JHH, where she won 7-5 in the 3rd set to defeat Le Petit Taureau in an event she'd won three of the previous four seasons? It's probably the reason why I was touting her in Paris before her injury. Petrova might not be someone who can/will be #1 in the world (on a day-to-day basis, I'd take Sharapova every time), but it should be noted that she's more of an all-surface player than even the Supernova, who's never even reached a clay final. In some ways, Petrova's a lot like Myskina, but with more weapons. Obviously, the Roland Garros title is Anastasia's one big catch that separates her... but, otherwise, I'd remain in Petrova's corner for '07 and beyond.

PC: Ok fair enough, I guess we will find out soon enough anyway, right? So it seems like it's now my turn to go first with my next picks, so without any further wait:

6. Nicole Vaidisova
7. Jelena Jankovic
8. Ana Ivanovic

Ok, so #8 is Ana Ivanovic. I'd be surprised if she wasn't also in your 6-8, but we'll see. I think she's been improving steadily, probably a bit faster than I had anticipated/hoped. She especially has learned to play within her limits and strengths in my opinion. Movement is still a big problem for her and I feel she still needs to have a more offensive return game just to make sure she's the one dominating the rallies. As well, she needs to improve her counterpunching. But she made great strides in 2006, in all aspects of her game, mental included.

Jelena Jankovic is surely one of those mysterious players isn't she? When Myskina said she wasn't sure if her opponent was more worried about winning the match or about her hair, she summed up what many people think. But behind that is big talent and when her heart is in it, she can hit amazing shots. I think her attitude has been gradually improving and she will be a force to be reckoned with.

Nicole, Nicole, Nicole... Now that we know Todd put you at #9 I'm hoping Nicole will prove her many bright spots were only a peak at what's next for her. The one worrying thing for me is how Nicole can play some awful matches at times and lacks consistency. When things are going wrong, she seems to have trouble fighting through it... but her game leaves no doubt, she has everything that's required to make a run for #1, the question is when... and I'm betting 2007 will be a big step closer. How about you, Todd?

TS: Well, while we're agreeing to disagree, I'll say that you'll be surprised to see neither Ivanovic or Jankovic on my #6-8 list, nor in my Top 10. It was a close call, though. I considered Chakvetadze for #10, but the two Serbs ended up being my top two non-listed players, as a I chose Safina & my #8 pick (below) in their places. I like the very "Mind of Myskina" quote you had from Anastasia, but I'll steal from my own words in IQ #9 for my decision:

"Jankovic looks like a slam contender at times, then at others melts like a sand castle at high tide (see U.S. Open SF). Is that the makings of a consistent Top 10 player?... Ivanovic won the U.S. Open Series with her title in Montreal, but that was the only event in which AnaIvo reached a SF all season."

I think both will spend some time in the Top 10 in '07, but neither will finish the season there.

6. Martina Hingis
7. Svetlana Kuznetsova
8. Tatiana Golovin

As opposed to last season, Hingis has points to defend this time around, but aside from her Oz QF she had no great slam result. I think she'll be more prepared this season at the four big events, and we'll see her in a SF in at least one, and into the second week in all four. Her ranking ceiling seems to be around #5 since she's had so much difficulty against the Top 10 (5-12 last season), so I'm picking her just below that.

Meanwhile, Kuznetsova was great at times in '06. Once upon a time, I called her the "most talented" of all the Russians (and you didn't exactly disagree with the assertion with Petrova-esque gusto, either), but she drifted in and out of that dominant form, then was just bad at the YEC in Madrid. I would pick her higher, but her late slip and all that "Curse" baggage (we both picked her #1 for '05, and the finished #18... then we left her off our Top 10's for '06, and she ended up #4) are probably coloring the #7 pick. Svetlana is a bit radioactive, and I feel like an ex-Soviet spy.

I liked what I saw of Golovin when she was healthy in '06. Thinking that the Golovin of Miami will be physically sound enough to show up on the court more often in '07, I'm prepared to prop up the Frussian Pastry... even above Vaidisova, for one season. Two years ago, Tatiana was the one generating all the buzz, remember. I think she'll get her first title this season and make a good run in a slam. She reached the QF at Flushing Meadows in the fall, so I'm looking at that as a sign of good times ahead.

PC: In a way, I see what you mean. The Golovin of Miami was truly impressive and showed signs she could make a run for the Top 5. But I do have one question for you, Todd, where else did you see signs of that last year? She is certainly a great fighter but to me, she has a similar game to Anna Chakvetadze but with less weapons, honestly as much as I'd like to see you right, I don't think you have much of a shot with this one. Who could argue about Kuznetsova's and Hingis' spot in the Top 10... but I might see them a bit higher up than you do. I'm mostly betting on the fact (and hope) that Martina had a full off-season to review what went wrong in her matches against the Top 10 and correct many of those. It didn't seem like she was as overwhelmed against those top players as she was when she stopped, at least to me. It was more about winning a few more points here and there, better conditioning, etc.

TS: Well, as is always the case, the Golovin prediction is somewhat speculative (and she's only #8, so I'm not going out too far on the limb). Much like Petrova, it took her a while to get back into gear after her injury. When she did, around U.S. Open time, she defeated Petrova and Chakvetadze in Flushing Meadows, then pushed Sharapova to two tie-breaks in the QF. A few weeks later, she upset Top 10er Schnyder to advance to the Stuttgart final, then later crushed Vaidisova 6-2/6-0 in Zurich. Once she was fully healthy, her results started to look similar to Miami... so I'm hoping she'll carry that momentum into '07.

I agree about Hingis being closer to beating the top players this time around, partly because of her improved attitude, but how much of that has to do with the fact that those players weren't Davenport, Venus, Serena or Capriati as they were a few years ago? As I'll discuss in IQ #6, the founding "big babes" aren't as dominant or as healthy as they used to be, opening up the door for "little babes" to flourish like they couldn't during Hingis I (in fact, that's probably one of the reasons Martina decided to make a comeback in the first place, don't you think?).

Oh, and since I've had to defend two of my picks so far without challenging any of yours, I feel it's my duty to press you a little bit on that Myskina pick. Other than maybe her play in Eastbourne, what did she do in '06 that makes you think she'll be able to climb back up the rankings (I mean, other than the fact that you're admittedly a little biased when when it comes to the Czarina)? I mean, she did end the '06 season on a five-match losing streak.

PC: Two quick stabs back (ok maybe not stabs but!)... true a big part of Martina's success is because those big babes were not there last year. But they won't be there a lot more in 2007. I think in those years when Hingis was struggling, power tennis was pushed to an extreme limit, perhaps too much so even. It went on for a while but then those players all started dropping to injuries (or other reasons)... it might just be that at least right now, players cannot play with such power without risking injury at some point or another. So Martina escaped that and is back to a different game, one that has power, but also has a lot of other aspects, which no doubt is helpful to her.

And Myskina... well, it's more belief than anything else. As you'll see in a few days when the 2006 Tennisrulz Awards results come out, a lot of other believers in the Czarina are out there, as well. I think her game is still as good as it was a couple of years ago when she was fighting for world #1. But a lot of off-court problems occured since (health, personal, etc.) that have made it difficult to give herself all out for the game she loves. But I think that will change in 2007.

Convinced?

TS: We'll see... but I really just wanted you to point out that all these picks are essentially shots in the dark.

Just ask Kuznetsova, right? Haha. Hmmm, I notice you're still yet to list her in your Top 10. Uh-oh... I'm not sure if that's good -- or bad -- news for the Contessova.

Either way, it seems we're at the half-way point in our Top 10 predictions, so this is a good time to take a break (I'd say we've put ourselves on the line quite enough for one time out, thank you very much). Looking at what we've predicted so far, only Vaidisova managed to appear in both our #6-10 lists. Somehow, though, I feel we'll probably have a bit more uniformity in our Top 5's... but, then again, who knows?


...stay tuned for Part II of "Backspin Volley," where we'll reveal our picks for 2007's #1-ranked player... and maybe saddle a player with having to carry that "Curse" target on her back for the next eleven months. At least we DO know one thing, though -- that person will most definitely NOT be either Petrova or Myskina.

All for now.

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#7: Is North America the New Hotbed of Tennis?

Well, let's not put the cart about twenty lengths ahead of the horse. But, at the very least, it should be noted that after all the talk of a revolution in Russia, and then a Chinese challenge, that one of the more under-reported stories of the '06 season was the distinct hint of what appeared to be a slight resurgence of young female tennis talent in North America.

For decades, it seemed like it was an American birthright for a tennis fan to have a handful (and sometimes two) of women at or near the top of the WTA rankings. So much so that there was often little inherent national pride in the fact that U.S.-born women were amongst the best players in the world. It was supposed to be that way, so why make a big deal about it?

That so-called "metaphysical certitude" is no longer.

The throwing off of the shackles of Communism and Soviet influence in the late '80s freed up the little girl athletic and lifestyle dreams to become reality in places where before they were largely fantasies. Anna Kournikova became a role model, and destroyed the myth of what a female athlete was supposed to look like. In her wake, from Russia and beyond, wave after wave of Eastern European (and later, Asian... especially after Beijing was awarded the '08 Olympics) girls have grown up believing that they could indeed follow in Kournikova's footsteps... and create new -- and bigger -- ones of their own.

Even with the rise in participation and popularity of female athletics in the U.S. over the past 10-15 years, the same rising tide that has made women's team sports (basketball, soccer & even softball) marketable entities in America somehow failed to raise tennis' boat in the States. Blame the rise of Tiger Woods (golf blitzkrieged tennis as soon as he won the Masters in '97), ESPN (which tried to gobble up all the top events to feed the network's "ego," only to badly mistreat the sport and turn it into niche programming that gets bumped off the air for softball and spelling bees), sports programming directors (only showing established Americans, even while the top U.S. stars aged and became less relevant), the USTA (which was content for far too long to let Nick Bollettieri do the hard work of finding and grooming new stars, while it was busy building new and bigger stadiums in Flushing Meadows) or whichever pseudo-organization you want for it, but the fact is that the long-delayed period of transition for women's tennis in the U.S. was finally recognized in the middle of the 2000's.

Thanks to the Williams sisters, plus Lindsay Davenport and Jennifer Capriati (both of whom managed to hang onto their top tier status into their late 20's), the inevitable American downturn was put off and ignored for quite a while longer than it rightly should have been. Then, when it did arrive, it did so just as Lindsay Davenport was finishing the '05 season at #1 and Venus & Serena were pulling their games out of mothballs long enough to both claim slam titles in the same calendar year for the first time since they broke onto the scene.

The irony of it all.

Behind the big four American stars, there was NOTHING waiting in the wings. Zero. Zilch. The best player was Meghann Shaughnessy, and she reached her career high five long years ago. The "Lost Generation" was personified by the plight of one Ashley Harkleroad, a talented and gritty young player who'd been pushed into the spotlight before she was ready (and primped up on court as if she was Kournikova's slutty little sister). She couldn't handle being the "next American star," and after topping out at #39 in 2003 her results took a dive, she stressed out, and her career nearly went down the drain.

So much was riding on Harkleroad, that the dearth of talent became even more apparent once she was (temporarily) removed from the discussion. A perusal of the current rankings tells you that the top-ranked American is Davenport at #25... and she's pregnant and seems unlikely to ever play again, judging from her comments last week. Capriati hasn't played since 2004, as she's battled against a shoulder injury and multiple surgeries. The Williamses barely had cameo roles in their own careers in '06, and have spent more time IN court than ON court in recent months.

Still, the sisters carry the American banner as the U.S.'s only slam champion hopes, and will continue to do so the rest of this decade. Meanwhile, the highest-profile tennis player, both on and off court, in the U.S. was born in Siberia.

A year ago, it would have been a stretch to think that there would be any new ripples in the American tennis waters as the '07 season approached, even while realizing that "tennis brigades" often come in bunches (such as the Sampras-Agassi-Courier generation that emerged from nowhere just as the death of MEN'S tennis in the U.S. was being bemoaned in the late '80s) as one player's victories spur on others to greater success (as happened when Anastasia Myskina's '04 Roland Garros win led to Russians winning the final two slams that year). The U.S. junior girls didn't look to include a Michael Chang (who was the first of that group of Americans to win a slam, at RG in '89) to kick start the rest... but then something changed over the course of last season that made one at least withhold judgment that ALL hope was gone.

For one, the USTA actually stirred. Moving the Player Development Program headquarters to the Evert Academy in Boca Raton was something that probably should have occurred a decade earlier, but it was better late than never. Bollettieri's set up had made fine work of producing talent, but it wasn't his job to find AMERICAN kids... and thus most of the girls who emerged from Bradenton were of the 'ova variety (Sharapova, Vaidisova) and the like. Starting this coming fall, as many as twenty juniors aged 14-18 will be housed in a dormitory-style residential training facility much like the type used to foster tennis talent around the world. It may take a while, but the effort will eventually bear fruit.

Call it symbiosis or pure luck, but almost as if on cue, new American names began to appear in the headlines in '06. Jamea Jackson led the U.S. Fed Cup team to an upset win over Germany, then defeated Sharapova on grass in Birmingham. Shenay Perry reached the Wimbledon Round of 16. Lauren Albanese won a U.S. Open 1st Round match, then reached the Girls SF. Chelsey Gullickson and Julia Cohen (currently the #7-ranked junior) showed promise. Bethanie Mattek got attention for her (lack of?) fashion sense, and then her tennis with a QF in Los Angeles (and who can't root for a lady who lists Brett Favre, Starbucks coffee and Krispy Kreme donuts as her "likes" in her WTA bio?). Even Harkleroad, now 21 and married to fellow player Alex Bogomolov, started to turn around her career, winning an ITF title and returning to the Top 100. Then, just last week, 16-year old Madison Brengle, a semifinalist at the most recent Orange Bowl junior event, won the U.S.'s wild card playoff for the Australian Open.

But is there a Chang in the bunch? Well, there was one player who made a big leap, and another that appears ready to resume her upward climb.

Vania King, 17, quietly climbed the ranks in 2006. She was never much of a force on the junior circuit, which she admits to having not particularly enjoyed playing. So far, the big tour has been more to her liking. In Week 7 in Bangalore, she reached her first WTA SF. By Week 11, she was ranked in the Top 100. She upset Alicia Molik in the 1st Round of the U.S. Open, then won her first career WTA title a little over a month later, sweeping the singles and doubles in Bangkok (defeating the likes of Molik, Safarova, Kostanic, Tanasugarn and Shaughnessy in succession) just three months after having officially turned professional. She was the first American 17-year old to win a tour singles crown since Serena Williams won the U.S. Open in 1999. By the end of her season, King was in the Top 50 and pushing Jelena Jankovic to a 6-4 3rd set in Quebec City. She lost that one, but it and the whole of her surprising '06 campaign was a shot across the bow of the rest of the American teenagers. King finally breathed some life in the next generation of American female players, but will her accomplishments, like Chang's, prove to be a clarion call to others who might be capable of accomplishing even more?



Alexa Glatch might be the player to watch to find out. While King is but 5-feet-5, the lanky "Cali Girl" Glatch, 17, is 6-feet tall, has room to grow, and says her favorite shot is the serve. Once the "most favored junior," Glatch suffered a setback in November '05 after breaking a bone in a scooter accident just months after having reached the U.S. Open Girls final. She finally returned to her promising early form in July, winning her first career ITF crown. Maybe she, not King, will end up being the star of this generation of American teens.

The USTA needs just one girl, any one, to hold up as proof that big-time tennis need not be virtually extinct outside of the Williams clan in the U.S.... and the search to find her in officially on.

Meanwhile, a little farther north, Canada is suddenly the home of two of the more promising young players on the horizon. Other than the nation's tenuous (and not very long-lasting) ties to Mary Pierce, the last Canadian female to make much of a dent in the rankings was former Top 10er Carling Bassett in the early 1980s. In 2006, Stephanie Dubois was the beneficiary of Kim Clijsters' misbegotten decision to play through a wrist injury in Montreal (the Belgian ultimately retired from the match), but she backed up her ranking spike after that win with a $50K ITF title in November. Dubois might come up with more surprises yet, but it's Aleksandra Wozniak and Sharon Fichman who are ready to elbow each other for position in the Canadian spotlight.



Wozniak, 19, is easily the most promising prospect since Bassett. Having reached the Girls Australian Open SF and Wimbledon Girls QF in '05, she rose into the Top 100 (her website touts her as the highest-ranked player ever from Quebec) and reached a tour QF back home in Quebec City late in the year. Fichman, barely 16, reached the Girls QF of both the Australian and U.S. in '06, and won both Oz & RG doubles titles with Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova. She's currently the #5-ranked junior in the world.

**NORTH AMERICANS IN TOP 500**
==age 21 and under==
#45 Jamea Jackson, 20 (USA)
#60 Vania King, 17 (USA)
#86 Ashley Harkleroad, 21 (USA)
#93 Aleksandra Wozniak, 19 (CAN)
#121 Stephanie Dubois, 20 (CAN)
#126 Bethanie Mattek, 21 (USA)
#139 Ahsha Rolle, 21 (USA)
#186 Carly Gullickson, 20 (USA)
#197 Jessica Kirkland, 19 (USA)
#222 Neha Uberoi, 20 (USA)
#227 Valerie Tetrault, 18 (CAN)
#233 Sunitha Rao, 21 (USA)
#306 Lauren Albanese, 17 (USA)
#363 Mary Gambale, 18 (USA)
#372 Julia Cohen, 17 (USA)
#382 Ashley Weinhold, 17 (USA)
#403 Ekaterina Shulaeva, 19 (CAN)
#437 Heidi El Tabakh, 20 (CAN)
#454 Sharon Fichman, 16 (CAN)
#496 Ellah Nze, 18 (USA)
#498 Madison Brengle, 16 (USA)

At the moment, there aren't any young North Americans that could be dubbed future slam contenders, but there's something to be said for filling out the field and the rankings in between all the Russians and eastern Europeans. It's a step by step process, and at least now the first baby ones are being taken. North America, and especially the U.S., shouldn't find itself in this position in 2006, where tennis is still the most lucrative of all the women's sports in the world, but the road back has to start somewhere.

Maybe it already has with King in America, while Wozniak and Fichman might be set to build a foundation for greater success in Canada.

The WTA Top 20 won't soon be loaded with teeny-bopper Americanas or Canucks, but the talent pool is active with life once again, and success like King's (and, soon, maybe Wozniak's) is inevitably contagious. North America isn't the new hotbed of tennis... but it is lukewarm, and that's saying something after that seven year drought without a 17-year old champion after Serena's U.S. Open breakout (not to mention the 20-year absence of a Canadian near the top of the rankings). The aim may now be lower, but it need not be any less accurate. This isn't the time to reload, but to rearm, while everyone waits for a "star" to emerge.

Eventually, she will. She always has... and, birthright or not, she will again. One day.

PREDICTION DART BOARD: King will win two smallish tour titles this season, while Jackson and Wozniak will win their first career WTA crowns. Meanwhile, Fichman and Brengle will claim their first ITF titles.


All for now.

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UP NEXT: ...and the "little babes" shall inherit the earth?

COMING SOON:

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#8: What the Hell is Wrong with Jelena Dokic?

Of course, maybe the question, "Does anyone still care?," should be added to Intriguing Question #8.

First off, I should say that "WTA Backspin" originated as a postscript to my weekly editions of "Jelena Corner" on Jelena-Dokic.com a few seasons back, so ruminating on the "State of Jelena's Game" is something of a tradition around this time of year. Every season of IQ's has seen one selection that touched on the current condition of Dokic's career, and her prospects in the upcoming season.

Thus, it is with great displeasure that I must say that I come here not to praise "The Debutante," but to bury her. Not that she needs any help... she's been doing a fairly good impression of a player who's been trying to sabotage her own career for a few seasons now.

In many ways, Dokic has epitomized the notion of what's "intriguing" about the WTA tour, for both good and bad. Wacky dad. A striking ascent on the court, then a comet-like journey through the tour's upper reaches before finally disappearing from view while all the true "stars" have continued to shine in the sport's sky.

Truthfully, has there ever been a formerly top-ranked player whose steadily downward plight has been as irrelevant as Dokic's has become? She hasn't been the textbook burnout case (ala a late 1990's Jennifer Capriati), nor the victim of an untimely injury (such as Andrea Jaeger, who reached #2 in 1980) or an ultimately tragic phenom (like "Little Mo" Connolly -- check out her story). Dokic has been an interesting enigma throughout her career, but she's turned out to be more of a frustrating head case than a classic tale of talent gone awry.

A year ago, though, Dokic seemed to be back on track. Tennis Australia had swallowed hard and opened its doors for a player who'd years earlier left in a huff with father Damir chanting charges of draw-rigging. As usual, it was a brief marriage... one that lasted only as long as things went Jelena's way. Under an Australian flag, Dokic won the Australian Open Wild Card playoff tournament, but then blew two match points and lost to Virginie Razzano in the 1st Round in Melbourne. In a few months, it was as if her brief blip of rediscovered relevance never actually occurred at all. The same player who earned over $1 million in 2001 barely won over $17,000 in 2006 (and took home a grand total of $67 in April).

When Dokic did play the rest of the season (in between her long absences, whether they be because of injury or indifference -- it's often hard to tell with the secretive Dokic camp), she essentially puttered around in a series of ITF events. Not a bad idea, though it should have been the plan at least two years earlier, when her ragged game and confidence first showed the signs that a repair wasn't going to be an overnight job. Still, it would have been a good course of action if Dokic's commitment to rebuilding her career was evident, but that hasn't been the case for quite some time.

Recently, Dokic made yet another of those head-scratching decisions that ticked off another handful of seconds on her career's final self-destruct clock when she voluntarily left Niki Pilic's academy in Munich, where she had finally seemed to have found a safe haven from which to mount a serious comeback. Whether this break came more because of a contract offer that was "anything but fair" (Jelena's long past being able to feel entitled to breaks... it's not 2000 anymore) or the facts behind Dokic's enigmatic quote about Pilic "staying out of her private life" is anyone's guess.

With Dokic, the truth could be either, or both. Take your pick, not that it matters. It'd just be the latest excuse by the 23-year old to not keep her own fragile vow to herself to get back even a fraction of the career she's managed to squander after being ranked as high as #4 in August '02.

"Jelena doesn't know what she wants" - Niki Pilic

As it is, Dokic is now back working with Borna Bikic, the Croatian coach (and, not coincidentally, brother of Jelena's boyfriend/fiance Tino) who's served more as an enabler than career consultant during Dokic's ranking spiral. From all indications, Bikic lets Jelena do what she wants, no matter whether it's a good idea or not (just as she prefers it). The recent scuffle the three had with a group of Croatian toughs blaming Jelena for some of Serbian Damir's past rants is just another example of the sort of mess that she consistently sets herself up for thanks to her poor decision-making. If she was following the correct course, she'd never been in Zagreb to be pushed around in the first place.

Tick...tick...tick.

In 2005, Dokic talked of returning to the Top 20. In 2006, it was the Top 50. Now, she speaks of the Top 100. It says a great deal about her that even that modest goal seems like pie-in-the-sky for the world #587. Despite her comments to the contrary, at her core, Dokic is aimless. Directionless. Lost. She utters the right words about goals and plans, but her actions speak louder than all the words in the world. At this point, it's all about whether she's serious about being a tennis player again, or whether she really just wants to be left alone. It's not always the case (just look at JHH), but it appears that with Dokic they're two mutually exclusive concepts.

The odds aren't good that Dokic will ever play in the spotlight again. She doesn't have the heart of Capriati, who turned her life and career around once... and can't be counted out in her attempt for one more major comeback after her injury/surgery-riddled past two seasons. She's not able to focus herself against adversity as well as Mary Pierce, the player Dokic touted in early '06 (in no small part because of their shared background of familial strife) as the touchstone for her own resurgence, either. Heck, she's not even as resilient as Daniela Hantuchova, who rose into the Top 5 at the same time as Dokic. Hantuchova may never reclaim her previous standing in the sport, but she's never stopped trying, has been willing to admit her own mistakes (for example, realizing that it was wrong to leave coach Nigel Sears) and accept advice and direction. Wonder Girl has at least kept her head above water, while Dokic has been sinking like a stone in a surging river and seems destined to drown.

Since fleeing Damir's circle of influence, Jelena has become a lost soul with no clue. She did retain something from her time with daddy, though. Stubborness, and the inability to accept a dissenting opinion like a professional. If someone doesn't follow in blind lock step with Jelena's desires and preconceived notions about how things must be, she usually flees while her face is still flushed (often slandering the "traitor" on the way out the door). Thus, she ultimately finds her way back to "the gang that can't shoot straight," largely because they'll nod in agreement while she continues to persist in the false perception that she already knows what's best for her flagging career.

I think Dokic made the wrong career choice. She shouldn't have been a professional tennis player -- her true calling was to be the President of the United States.

Pilic is the most recent object of Dokic's scorn, but he also might be the last. After all, at this point, anyone who'd get involved with her tennis career would have to be a masochist of the highest order.

Hmmm, maybe it's Dokic herself who's the true masochist. How else can her string of career-killing decisions, each one as bad as the last, be otherwise explained?

It'd be easy to blame Damir for her ingrained paranoia and tendency to have temper tantrums when challenged... but that would just be another case of excuse-making. The time for that ran out a long time ago. This is no way to run a career. No worry, though... it won't likely last much longer.

"I feel I have got my head together and my tennis together." That was Jelena Dokic in 2003... and it wasn't the truth then, and still isn't.

In fact, Dokic is no longer even fit to carry the "Debutante" moniker. That nickname was born of both promise and legitimate entitlement. Neither word currently exists in the Dokic lexicon, who's hardly of the nature to become an Anglican Dominican nun, as has recently become the case with Jaeger... err, I mean, Sister Andrea. Much like Jaeger, though, "Sister Jelena" is looking at the end of one phase of her life and the beginning of the next entirely different one. It's up to Dokic whether or not that's a good thing or not.

Will Jelena Dokic be a (wo)man or a mouse as a tennis player in 2007? I'm afraid we already know the answer. Face it, it's never a good thing when Damir is arguably the most sensible voice in the family these days. As the new season begins, Dokic's descent into irrelevance should be sad... but, ironically, it isn't. Actually, it's difficult to have much of a heartfelt response of any kind at all anymore. It's probably smarter to just wash one's hands of the situation, and wish Dokic the best... even if one knows that the concept would fall on deaf ears for a person seemingly intent on obliterating what little remains of a once-promising career. Now, maybe THAT is sad.

It's just about time to play taps for what never was.

PREDICTION DART BOARD: Dokic will end 2007 ranked between #300-400, and will extend her stretch without a single Main Draw win in a slam to four full seasons (her last slam win came in the 1st Round of the '03 U.S. Open)

All for now.

=============================

NEXT UP: Look out, North America, here they come!! Ummm... well, maybe. Kinda. Well, at least ALL hope isn't lost.

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#9: Who Might Loathe 2007?

Yesterday was about the good, but with every yin there's a little yang to balance things out. 2007 could turn out to be great for any (but not all) of these players, but some will have to cheat fate and turn the tide of history to make it so.

IQ #10 was optimistic, but #9 is presented through a pessimist's eyes. For sure, every top player could be unknowingly teetering on the edge of oblivion. But even when bad times come as a seeming surprise, hindsight often shows there were potentially dire warning signs that things were about to go horribly wrong. Today, Backspin tries to get ahead of the game, for on the dark side of the world, everyone has something to worry about:

==The Top 10==
#1 Justine Henin-Hardenne: The only way to top a season in which she finished #1 and reached the finals of all four slams, the YEC and Fed Cup would be to win at least half of the grand slams. Even Le Petit Taureau might not be able to string together back-to-back monster seasons.
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#2 Maria Sharapova: All signs appear to point up for the Supernova, but isn't she due for an off season? (I know, that's not a truly pessimistic view, but with the Scenario potentially on deck in '08, I'm afraid that bringing up the bad might turn it into reality... plus, I get the sneaky suspicion that Pierre and I might be about to paint a great big target on Sharapova's back when we make our Top 10 picks in a couple weeks, anyway.)
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#3 Amelie Mauresmo: Sure, Mauresmo looked like she still had the drive to achieve at the YEC in Madrid at the end of her two-slam championship season, but that was a last gasp final week push. After reaching her career goal (twice), she might not have it in her, at 27-turning-28, to construct another superior campaign (remember how she fell off late and lost her #1 ranking?) when she has nothing more to prove.
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#4 Svetlana Kuznetsova: Was her lack of a finishing push in Madrid a sign of bad times to come?
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#5 Kim Clijsters: Oh, if only Clijsters had attacked her career with the mindset that she had something to prove, huh? Now, THE END could be just one bad turn of that left wrist away. Unless -- egads! -- she's not a woman of her word.
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#6 Nadia Petrova: What if '06 was her best shot at a breakout slam, and she missed out?
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#7 Martina Hingis: Hingis beat most of the players she should have last year, but was 5-12 against the Top 10ers. How's that any different from the end of Hingis I? And the competition will only get tougher if Venus & Serena return.
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#8 Elena Dementieva: If she hasn't improved the serve by now, it's obvious that Dementieva isn't going to at all. And, at age 25, her career might only go downhill from here.
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#9 Patty Schnyder: Will The White Mile distract the already most wildly unpredictable Top 10 player? After all, a mile is very long, especially if it is a white one.
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#10 Nicole Vaidisova: That 1-6 record in semifinals last year isn't exactly something to be proud of, now is it? The "next step" make take an extra year.
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==#'s 11-20==
#11 Dinara Safina: Come on, she's Marat's sister, so practically anything could happen. Look further for the proof of the loopy nature of this family than the fact that Dinara's career-best ranking year in '06 took place in a season in which the four-time WTA titlist didn't actually win a title.
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#12 Jelena Jankovic: Jankovic looks like a slam contender at times, then at others she melts like a sand castle at high tide (see last year's U.S. Open). Is that the makings of a consistent Top 10 player?
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#13 Ana Ivanovic: She won the U.S. Open Series because of her title in Montreal, but that was the only event AnaIvo reached the SF in all season.
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#14 Anna Chakvetadze: The Doll's not a power player, so everything depends on her brain being in tune and focused enough to come up with the Hingisian tactics of "Little Babe Tennis" on gameday. And how many 19-year olds do you know who don't have a few lapses in concentration along the way?
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#15 Francesca Schiavone: If Schiavone was going to ever win a singles title wouldn't she have done it by now? As it is, she's 0-8 in finals and things are getting late in the game for a 26-year old whose main asset is her athleticism to find a way over new hurdles. She's not Navratilova, after all (even if she does remind you of Martina when she walks around the court sometimes).
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#16 Anastasia Myskina: The Czarina is the queen of highs and lows. She's not going to win back the "top Russian" title, so will the indifference that creeped into her game in '06 slowly consume her career in '07?
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#17 Marion Bartoli: Olga Poutchkova might think Bartoli's a potential slam champion, but does anyone else really buy into that? Yeah, I didn't think so.
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#18 Daniela Hantuchova: Sometimes it's all a mirage, and a promising player isn't up to ever reaching her potential. At 19, Wonder Girl was a player on the rise. At 23, she might just be forever branded as a player who never came close to living up to the hype.
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#19 Anna-Lena Groenefeld: How much of a blow did her confidence take during her 2-5 and 4-13 stretches to began and end her '06 season? If she starts out in a rut again in '07, will that season-saving 22-9 middle stretch be pulled out of Girl Friday's tennis bag again?
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#20 Shahar Peer: She was 3-0 in finals last year, but what are the odds that her final winning streak gets to 12 like that of fellow Israeli Anna Smashnova? (Yeah, I know that's another stretch... but that's because I really do think Peer could make a big move next year.)
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==And a few more, just because they're difficult to ignore==
Sesil Karatantcheva: Another year without tennis for Sesil, as an '08 return still seems so far away. At least she'll have twelve months to prepare her intentional/unintentional comedy routines for her future post-match press conferences.
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Maria Kirilenko: Is Maria K. more Anna K. than Maria S. when it comes to winning? The younger Hordettes are ganging up behind her, and it could be that the Kournikova-esque spotlight might be more appealing for this attractive blonde Russian than the one that Sharapova shines under.
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Vets Who Can See the End: By the end of '07, the likes of (expecting) Davenport, (injured) Pierce, (trapped in limbo) Capriati and (she didn't actually retire, she just faded away) Seles -- winners of a total of 17 slam titles -- might have officially put away their rackets. All-time slam participant Amy Frazier (71 slams over a 20-year span) is already set to bow out before '08.
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Shuai Peng: After falling from #37 to #56 in what was supposed to be her breakout season of '06, maybe the "most talented" of the Cookies is never going to walk the straight Chinese line and put it all together on the court.
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Sania Mirza: Since I'm saving one "gem" who's begging to be included on this list for "IQ #8," I'll do just as good by bringing up the player whose game and quick rise somewhat resembled that of Jelena Dokic. Both hit the crap out of the ball, were internet friendly and magnets for controversy... and their games limited and one-dimensional. Maybe '05 was all there was for Mirza. Consistency separates champions from potentially talented but spotty pretenders. Dokic succumbed to the game's pressures, let her game and confidence go to seed, and seems unwilling or unable (or both) to do anything about it. Maybe Princess Sania is too much like the Debutante in enough wrong places to ever have another go around in the spotlight. (Okay, so maybe that one DID end up being a little more about Dokic than Mirza.)

PREDICTION DART BOARD:
1) Davenport will have a baby (all right, that's a cheat)
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2) Mirza won't return to the Round of 16 at a slam in' 07
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3) Sharapova and Henin-Hardenne will divvy up the four slam championships
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4) Clijsters will win a Tier I title, and maybe even two, but still retire with so much left on the table
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5) Hingis will reach the Australian or Roland Garros SF (and maybe both)
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6) Vaidisova will still be seeking that first slam final by the end of '07. One more year, Nicole.
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7) Hantuchova won't win her first title since '02, and Schiavone won't win her first title since, well, the beginning of time
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8) Jankovic won't win anything bigger than a Tier III crown, but she'll briefly rank in the Top 10
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9) Peer will again win multiple titles, and get one enormous upset at a slam
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10) Kirilenko will prove to be more like Anna... getting seen, but not lifting trophies
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So, who might loathe 2007? Any, and all. Certainly, a year from now, a handful of these players will be looking forward to '08 with the hope that it'll erase all the bad mojo picked up in '07. The upcoming season will tell the tales, of both good and bad.

All for now.

==============================

UP NEXT: Speaking of bad, stay tuned for "Intriguing Question #8," a cautionary tale about a lady who just can't seem to make a good decision to save her life, or her career.

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#10: Who's Looking Forward to 2007?

Of course, all players worth their body weight in salt SHOULD be looking forward to the new year. After all, it'll include an entire season that'll give them the chance to solidify what they accomplished in 2006, or erase past disappointment and start over again with a clean slate after a particularly lackluster campaign.

But history and human nature says that some players -- be it through sheer will or by an expected change in luck -- seem to have the odds in their favor. For a few, the next eleven months will present them with exciting opportunities which could leave them smiling widely by this time next year. Here are a few of those players:

Alicia Molik

...in early 2005, the Aussie Steamer, a fun-lovin' girl-next-door who seemed like "one of the gang," had finally realized her moment in the sun. Coming off winning Olympic Bronze in Athens and defeating Maria Sharapova to win the Zurich Tier I (becoming the first to beat the Russian in a tour final), Molik opened '05 by surging in front of her local legion of supporters. She won Sydney, then raced to the Australian Open QF (the first Aussie-born women to do so since '88), and nearly upset #1 Lindsay Davenport to get within one match of the final. She climbed into the Top 10 for the first time, and looked ready to continue to move forward toward even bigger and better things... only to then be whacked upside the head by the fickle hand of fate. After winning over so many to her cause, it appeared as if she might have nothing tangible, tennis-wise, left to offer in return. At mid-season, Molik was felled by a case of vestibular neuronitis, an inner ear infection that affected her vision and balance and sent her results into a tailspin, ultimately forcing her off the tour for most of the final eight months of the '05 season. As '06 began, she was prepared to be forced to skip the entire season. Quite literally, Molik's career was in jeopardy of being extinguished. As last season wore on, Molik improved. She participated in the Aussie version of "Dancing with the Stars," then tentatively returned to the tour in May. She went 9-16 for the season, registered a win in Fed Cup play, and attained her season's best result with a QF in Guangzhou near the close of a "two steps forward, one step back" attempt at a comeback campaign that left her ranked #164. So, what comes next? In Molik's case, it's not a matter of whether she'll ever be fortunate enough to have athletic lightning strike her for the first time. She has talent galore -- big strokes and power -- and a game built for grass and hard court success (she'd even won 18 of her first 19 doubles matches to start '05), and was finally basking in it before her career's brush with extinction. During Molik's time in the woods, Samantha Stosur became Australia's #1 singles player (and the world's #1 in doubles), and Jelena Dokic returned Down Under before doing her usual disappearing act once again. A healthy Molik, who turns 26 in January, still has the most star potential of any of the Aussies (male or female), and a James Blake-like revival from the brink would be welcomed with open arms from all corners, not just by her mates back home. With the help of new coach Paul Kilderry, she's been working for two months and recently declared herself in her best shape in two years as she prepares to begin play in the Oz Playoff tournament in a few days. If she's up to it, the Steamer could be sitting on the feel good story of 2007.
PREDICTION DART BOARD: Molik will reach the QF at a slam, win two titles and return to the Top 15

Nadia Petrova & Tatiana Golovin

...Petrova and Golovin's games both made strides in 2006, but they're at different stages along their career paths.

After seasons of struggling to break through, Petrova ended '05 with her first career title and carried over the resulting confidence boost into '06. She reached the Oz QF, then dominated the clay season, winning four titles during a 22-1 tear that stretched from the Middle East across the Atlantic to the U.S. and back again to Europe. During the period, she moved past Maria Sharapova to become the highest-ranked Russian (she climbed as high as #3 in the world), and was looking to be a potential favorite at Roland Garros. But a hip injury in practice scuttled it all. She limped into Paris, exited in the 1st Round, then had to skip Wimbledon altogether. Returning to form (especially mentally) proved to be a monumental task, but Petrova worked until she got it right. A 3-8 spiral (she recorded zero wins from RG to the start of the U.S. Open) finally turned in her favor in Stuttgart in October as she added title #5 to her '06 total, setting the stage for two more appearances in finals (Moscow and Linz) and a win over #1 Amelie Mauresmo in the YEC. With her career breakthrough coming in '05, then her career year being banked in '06, 2007 offers Petrova the chance to finally join the list of Russian slam marvels. She's already showed her versatility by reaching the SF at Roland Garros (twice) and the QF at the other three slams... but she's never played in a slam final and, at the age of 24, her window of opportunity could begin to close after about two more seasons. Rarely are "do-overs" awarded, but the European misfortune of late spring could be reversed the next time around. Petrova now knows she CAN do it, and for her that's far more than half the battle.

Golovin, too, is looking for a second chance. The Frussian Pastry was the "Vaidisova of '04," the teen looking for all the world like the next young player who'd put together a Top 10 push. After holding steady in '05 (and reaching her second career final), Golovin was turning up the pressure in 2006's opening months. Her early season results inclued a SF in Paris, then her run in Miami made her look like a star. In her adopted hometown, she upset Elena Dementieva and had backed Sharapova into a corner in the QF (overcoming a 5-1 deficit and four match points in the 2nd set) before nastily turning her ankle after chasing a ball to the court's margins in the 3rd set. Two months were lost, as was precious ground. The 18-year old returned at Roland Garros (where Vaidisova coincidentally zoomed to the SF) and soon began to pick up where she'd left off. A SF in Stanford led to a QF at the U.S. Open (her best ever slam result), then a RU in Stuttgart (she lost to Petrova). It all brought back memories of the stepping stones that Golovin had started to set down in Miami before she was so rudely interrupted. After being eclipsed by Vaidisova on the "It Girl" list during the layoff, Golovin easily handled the Czech teen in her season-closing event in Zurich. Now, 2007 offers Golovin the chance to officially reclaim her position as "the teenager most likely"... if she can just manage to stay on the court.
PREDICTION DART BOARD: Petrova will reach her first slam final (probably RG), and Golovin will claim at least the first two tour singles titles of her career

The Young Romanians
...we're always on the lookout for a new revolution, aren't we? After the Russians came the Chinese, and now the deep ex-Soviet Republic/Eastern Bloc waters of Europe are producing talent emanating from Prague and Kiev to Warsaw and Minsk. How about adding Bucharest to that list of starting points? Yes, a Romanian Revolution could be lurking on the horizon. There's yet to be an Anna or Maria (or even a Jie, for that matter) to lead the army of Romanian girls into battle, but there is some past evidence that proves the women's game can indeed attract the girls not swept up in the latest search to find another Gold Medal-winning gymnast. Romanian woman have won twenty singles title in the Open Era, from the twelve by Virginia Ruzici in the '70s/'80s to the four apiece during the '80s/'90s by Ruxandra Dragomir and '97 U.S. Open semifinalist Irina Spirlea (people complain about JHH, but what would they say now about a player like Spirlea, who had to be ironically admired for being willing to be outright mean and boorish at times, something of a female version of Romanian bad boy/slam champ Ilie Nastase? Needless to say, I kind of liked her.). The names don't exactly overflow with grandeur, but we're not talking Kazakhstan here (sorry Amina Rakhim). The Horde needn't likely worry, but a Romanian regiment is indeed being assembled... even if it might be a bit early to expect titles and Maria-esque endorsements to soon begin to flow. As of now, 17-year old Raluca-Ioana Olaru is really the only Romanian girl to leave much of an actual footprint, reaching the '05 Roland Garros Girls final (and the '06 Oz Girls SF). Meanwhile, Alexandra Dulgheru made the '06 Wimbledon Girls QF, Monica Niculescu the '05 Oz Girls QF, and Miheala Buzarnescu the '05 U.S. Girls SF. The Junior Top 20 recently simultaneously included Buzarnescu, Sorana Cirstea, Dulgheru and Olaru, while nearly twenty different Romanian women managed to grab ITF singles titles in 2006.


*TOP 10 ROMANIAN TEENS*
#201 Madalina Gojnea, 19
#223 Monica Niculescu, 19
#261 Mihaela Buzarnescu, 18
#262 Raluca-Ioana Olaru, 17
#319 Agnes Szatmari, 19
#356 Sorana Cirstea, 16
#371 Corina Corduneanu, 18
#515 Diana Enache, 19
#545 Alexandra Dulgheru, 17
#562 Anamaria Sere, 18

Keep a close eye on the group as a whole in '07. By the end of the new year, a few should be a bit more familiar if things go according to plan.
PREDICTION DART BOARD: One of the Romanians will win a junior slam singles crown, and Olaru will reach a tour SF

The Sisters (but not THOSE sisters)
...the WTA tour is increasingly becoming a family affair (and Jaz Agassi is still a decade away from puberty). Sister acts like Venus & Serena are hardly an anomaly these days, proving that either familial athletic genes are extremely strong these days, or that one sibling is especially prone to imitating the other. Ukraine's trio of Bondarenkos, while not rivaling the troika of Maleevas, did see Alona win her first WTA title and Kateryna claim an ITF event, as both have already bested the career accomplishments of older sister Valeria. America has the Gullicksons (or "The Naturals," considering their dad was a former Major League Baseball pitcher), Top 60 doubles player Carly and rising junior Chelsey, who seems destined to trump her big sis in singles play in a few years. And, then, of course there are the siblings of men's stars Marat Safin (#11 Dinara Safina), Richard Krajicek (Michaella won two tour titles in '06) and Mario Ancic (Sanja is set to team with big bro in Hopman Cup play in a few weeks). But the two who might be poised to eventually inherit the title of "best sisters" could be Poland's Radwanskas.

2006 saw 17-year old Agnieszka and 16-year old Urszula both rank in the Top 10 in juniors at the same time. Agnieszka won the Roland Garros Girls title, then reached the Wimbledon main draw Round of 16 (as a wild card in her slam MD debut) just as Urszula battled into the SW19 Girls SF (a year after her big sis had won the Girls title at the All-England Club). Agnieszka made her mark with big upsets in '06, knocking off Anastasia Myskina in Warsaw in her first match against a Top 100 player, and then the likes of Venus Williams, Elena Dementieva and Anna-Lena Groenefeld later in the season. For her part, Urszula also pushed Myskina (7-6/6-3) in Stockholm, making the Czarina likely hope there isn't a third Radwanska out their with a score to settle. If last season was but a taste of what these sisters have in store for the tour, then Poland might just have it's first honest to goodness tennis stars who'll succeed where still title-less Marta Domachowska hasn't. That is, becoming the first Polish woman to win a WTA singles title. Who knows, maybe the 1-2 Radwanska family punch could provide half (or maybe all?) of the first all-Pole WTA final by the time the calendar is turned over to the 2010's.
PREDICTION DART BOARD: Agnieszka will become the first Polish woman to win a tour singles title, while Urszula will claim a Junior Girls crown. (Oh, and Safina will become the latest Russian to win a Tier I championship, too.)

Sania Mirza

...in 2005, the Indian Princess was the toast of the tour. A fresh face with an equally fresh mouth. A winning attitude with a stinging two-handed backhand down the line that helped her win the tour's "Newcomer of the Year" award. Sania Mirza spent the season putting her name on a series of "first to" lists, reaching the Australian Open 3rd Round and U.S. Open Round of 16, and winning a tour singles title (no Indian woman had ever accomplished as much). She began her '06 season having worked a bit in the offseason with Tony Roche, and her future looked bright. So, what happened? Last season, Mirza didn't win a singles title (she only made a single SF), saw her won/lost record go from 33-20 in '05 to 20-24 and her ranking from #31 to #66, her best slam results were a pair of 2nd Rounds, and her reverberation factor in the media fell by, to be conservative, at least half. 2007 offers Mirza the opportunity to recapture the spotlight, without having to be burned in effigy in the process. She still has many positives working in her favor: beauty, personality, the novelty of being an opinionated and visible woman of the Muslim faith, and an oft-exciting brand of tennis. Young players usually go through growing pains, following up breakout seasons with a period of quiet before finally regaining their footing due to their familiarity with their new life under the microscope. Even with her past tendency to shoot off with every opinion that drifted through her mind, Mirza seemed to have a good head on her shoulders to go along with the promise that caught Roche's eye. She went 7-4 in her final '06 swing through Asia (getting a win over Martina Hingis in Seoul), notching two QF and a SF for three of her four best results of the season. Will closing on such an uptick carry over? 2007 will be her chance to prove all the attention and optimism of '05 wasn't based on a mirage.
PREDICTION DART BOARD: Mirza will win another tour singles title back home in India, and her ranking will click up at least 20 slots before the end of the season


*10 OTHERS TO WATCH IN 2007*

1. Victoria Azarenka (BLR): she's been on the cusp of a breakthrough for about a year now
2. Olga Poutchkova (RUS): showed late '06 signs of possibly being something special
3. Vania King (USA): it only took her three months as a pro to win her first WTA singles title
4. Jamea Jackson (USA): she proved capable of flattening giants (can you say, "Sharapova on grass?") in '06
5. Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova (RUS): her junior resume is loaded for (Russian) bear
6. Aleksandra Wozniak (CAN): the best Canadian since 1980's star Carling Bassett, a two-time quarterfinalist at Roland Garros.
7. Tszvetana Pironkova (BUL): in Sesil's absence, the Bulgarian will be looking to transport her ability to generate big-time slam wins to the rest of her schedule.
8. Aravane Rezai (FRA): another youngster with a dad who makes unfortunate headlines
9. Yung-Jan Chan (TPE): in 2006, her results progressed from RG Junior SF to Wimbledon & U.S. Open qualifier to Tokyo Japan Open SF.
10. Shuai Zhang (CHN): could be this year's Zi Yan (in other words, the next Cookie to win her first tour title after warming up on the ITF circuit)
HM- Anna Tatishvili (GEO): it's never too early to keep an eye on a fast-rising Anna


All for now.

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UP NEXT: Who might end up dreading 2007? Well, under the right circumstances, just about anyone... unless you're a currently non-glowing opponent of Vladimir Putin, of course. In that case, you'd be best content with simply enjoying your next few minutes, if you know what's good for you.

Take a look at things from a pessimist's point of view in "Intriguing Question #9."

Read more...